The 2024 election cycle is anticipated to be a highly contested battle, with every stage of the process integral to each candidate’s hopes of being on the ballot this November. So why can two small states that represent less than a fraction of the electorate virtually decide the nominee before the primaries truly begin?
The Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary are two of the first U.S. presidential voting days in the entire country, in which they call voters to the polls to select a nominee from their respective party.
Iowa Caucuses are unique in that they are organized by political parties and are held to discuss which party member to vote for, before ultimately casting their votes at the ballot.
Inversely, primaries are independent, state-run events in which voters head to the polls to cast their ballot, as is the case in New Hampshire and all remaining US states and territories.
This precedent of making Iowa the ‘first in the nation’ traces its roots to the 1972 Presidential Election. Des Moines had no available rooms the week of the Democratic National Convention in their state, forcing them to move their caucus to an earlier date. Subsequently, their caucus was to be held on the 24th of January, making it the first contest of the year.
The democratic nominee at the time, George McGovern, noticed the significance of its early date and invested heavily into the state. Republicans followed suit shortly after, and it has remained a significant part of U.S. presidential Elections since.
Despite this long-held precedent of making these two states the first to kick off 2024’s election process, the fact remains that both Iowa and New Hampshire rank both 31st and 41st in population respectively, indicating that their priority status is not explained by their representation of the total U.S voting population.
The evident lack of representation becomes increasingly apparent when looking at both states’ overall racial composition.
“White, non-Hispanic residents make up 84% and 89% of Iowa and New Hampshire respectively, compared with just 58% of the nation as a whole. Iowa and New Hampshire are not representative of the United States, particularly on the basis of race,” according to United Press International.
As aforementioned, both states fall critically short of accurately representing America in two key areas pivotal in deciding election outcomes. Nonetheless, their prominence in U.S elections often gives them greater ability to influence the results.
Arguably the most profound issue regarding Iowa and New Hampshire’s early dates, is that populous states like California and New York going later in the nomination process are generally relinquished from the ability to select between multiple candidates; given that only one or two candidates from each party typically remains at the time of their primaries.
All of these factors taken into consideration explain why the Democratic Party had decided to move their first primary to South Carolina earlier last year, a state with a larger and more diversified voting bloc than both Iowa and New Hampshire.
Regardless of who goes first in the nomination process, the only date that truly matters in deciding who will become the next president of the United States is Tuesday, Nov. 3. However, modifying the order of the nomination process to be more representative of the U.S population at large is undoubtedly the sensible decision to make in future elections.
